Crude oil exports from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are expected to be much lower in the second week of May, according to new shipping data.
The data released late last week by Oil Movements, a tanker tracking consultancy based in Halifax, England, suggest OPEC exports for the week ending May 16 will be down by 200,000 bpd from export volume for the week ending May 9.
On April 23, Oil Movement reported exports for the week-ended May 9 would be down just 60,000 bpd. The new data suggests OPEC plans to cut output more sharply than in previous weeks.
OPEC exports for the four weeks to May 16 are estimated to be down 190,000 bpd from the level of exports during the previous four weeks.
OPEC is slated to hold a meeting on May 28 to decide whether to again cut production, but any decision will depend on the prevailing economic circumstances some ministers have suggested.
While the International Monetary Fund recently lowered its growth forecast for 2009, other data in the U.S. and China, the largest consumers of oil, have shown the economy may be stabilizing and consumer confidence is rising.
The Oil Movements data released last week show that Mideast export volume for the week ending May 16 is expected to be 150,000 bpd lower at 16.010 million bpd, and the region’s exports for four weeks to May 16 is expected to be down 140,000 bpd at 16.4 million bpd.
The report also showed Mideast exports for the week ending May 9 would be 90,000 bpd lower.
The latest Oil Movements data also show overall volume of oil in transit—from both OPEC and non-OPEC members—at about 422 million bbl during the week ending May 16, down 13.4 million bbl from the week ending May 9.
OPEC pledged to cut 4.2 million bpd or 5 percent from its September production level to shore up crude prices. Compliance with the cuts has been good at around 80 percent.
Slowing oil consumption due to the recession has cut oil prices to just around $53 bbl as of May 1, from their peak level at $147 bbl on July 11, 2008. OPEC daily basket price stood at $49.98 bbl as of April 29, up from $48.51 bbl the prior week.
