The OilSpot News by DTN
Monday, November 23, 2009 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 379  

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AAA Projects 1.4% Yearly Gain in Thanksgiving Travel

AAA said in a news release that it expects 38.4 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, a 1.4 percent increase over last year.

The number of travelers by automobile is expected to be 33.2 million, up 2.1 percent from 32.5 million during the 2008 Thanksgiving holiday. AAA expects the number of travelers by air to be 2.3 million, down 6.7 percent from 2.5 million last year. The number of travelers using “other” means, including trains, watercraft, buses and multiple-modes of transportation, is expected to rise 1.2 percent to 2.9 million.

Last year, Thanksgiving travel dropped a precipitous 25.2 percent in the wake of the ongoing housing and financial crisis. This year’s expected increase in travel reflects improved consumer confidence from one year ago, better financial market performance and a growing sense among many consumers that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us, AAA said.

“Although far too many Americans remain unemployed or under financial stress, AAA’s projected increase in Thanksgiving travel from one year ago is another hopeful sign that economic conditions are stabilizing and improving in some areas,” said AAA’s director of Travel Services, Glen MacDonell. “We can also be thankful the gradual recovery we have been seeing in the U.S. travel industry since the start of the summer is continuing.”

According to the release, 86 percent of Thanksgiving vacationers are expected to travel by automobile, while only 6 percent say they will go by air. In October, the time when most people make decisions in regards to Thanksgiving travel, average gasoline prices were approximately 54cts gal cheaper than they were in October 2008. Despite increase in gasoline prices since October this year, most people will not change their decision to fly versus drive since seat availability becomes more limited and airline ticket prices increase as the holiday approaches.

This year’s decrease in the number of air travelers continues a decade-long trend in which air travel as a percentage of total Thanksgiving travel has declined substantially. Since 2000, the number of Americans traveling by air during the Thanksgiving holiday weekend has dropped an astounding 62 percent. While much of this decrease can be attributed to ongoing economic difficulties, the air travel experience itself has undergone substantial changes since the 1990s with stricter airport security, more frequent flight delays, reduced capacity, added surcharges and fees, all contributing to the decline.


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