The amount of refinery capacity that is available through January 2010 will be sufficient to meet gasoline and distillate demand predictions and should not have a significant impact on fuel prices, the Energy Information Administration reported in its Market Assessment of Refinery Outages planned for October through January 2010, released Nov. 24.

Available refinery crude distillation capacity could run about 2 million bpd more than is projected to be needed during the October though January period, the report states. Because of this, at least 10 percent of available capacity may not be needed. Also, available catalytic cracking unit capacity will be about 10 percent greater than projected U.S. feed input to catalytic crackers.

Estimates include the impact of the indefinite idling of Sunoco’s 150,000 bpd Eagle Point Refinery in New Jersey, the report states. PADD 1, where this refinery is located, is the area of most concern, the report states. However, with U.S. gasoline and distillate demand projected to remain close to or below 2008 levels, and with stocks for both being normal to very high in most regions, the outage should present no major supply concerns.

Refineries have a surplus of capacity due to a reduction in refinery petroleum fuel demand stemming mainly from the recession and from increased use of ethanol in gasoline.

While distillate demand peaks in the winter months, demand for distillates is projected to decline almost 7 percent over the same period in 2008 due to the recession. Distillate stocks are also currently very high – more than 170 million bbl at the end of September compared to normal peaks of about 135 million bbl.

Fourth quarter gasoline demand is expected to increase slightly, by 0.8 percent, over the fourth quarter of 2008. But some of that increase will be met by ethanol, the report states. Also, U.S. refineries’ actual gasoline production since June has been higher than in 2008 due to lower imports in the second and third quarters and slightly higher demand. Imports of gasoline are expected to be available through early 2010, and inventories are ample enough to meet any unanticipated supply or demand changes, the report states.

Section 804 of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 requires the EIA to provide reports on refinery operations and their impact to supply and prices.