Demand for oil will grow by 35 percent from 2005 to 2030, predicts ExxonMobil in the oil major’s “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030,” which was released Dec. 8.

Economic recovery and growth, coupled with rising populations and living standards, will push energy demand up by 1.2 percent a year on average through 2030, given that energy efficiency also increases, the report states. Without efficiency improvements, demand in 2030 could be about 95 percent higher.

“In our energy outlook, we see many hopeful things – economic recovery and growth, improved living standards and a reduction in poverty, and promising new energy technologies,” said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer. “But we also see a tremendous challenge, and that is how to meet the world’s growing energy needs while also reducing the impact of energy use on the environment.”

All the growth in demand through 2030 occurs in non-OECD [non-industrialized] countries, where economies are growing most rapidly. Non-OECD energy demand rises by more than 60 percent; demand in OECD countries declines slightly even as their economies expand, according to the report.

ExxonMobil predicts that power generation will be the largest and fastest-growing sector, accounting for 40 percent of all energy demand by 2030.

Demand for transportation fuels should continue to increase, due to more use of heavy-duty vehicles like trucks and buses, while demand for light-duty vehicles, such as cars and sports utility vehicles, will plateau and decline, the report states.

In order to meet demand through 2030, economic energy sources will need to be expanded, the report states.

Demand will be strongest for fuels that can help reduce CO2 emissions, such as natural gas. While oil will remain the largest energy source through 2030, natural gas will move into second place ahead of coal, ExxonMobil predicts. In 2030, these three fuels will meet close to 80 percent of global energy needs.

By 2030, demand for natural gas will be more than 55 percent higher than in 2005, the report states, and technologies that have unlocked “unconventional” gas will help satisfy this demand.

Nuclear and renewable fuels will see strong growth, particularly in the power-generation sector. ExxonMobil predicts that by 2030, about 40 percent of the world’s electricity will be generated by nuclear and renewable fuels.

Despite the likelihood that energy efficiency will improve and nations will shift towards lower-carbon fuels, global carbon dioxide emissions will still rise by an average of 0.9 percent per year.

Non-OECD countries will account for all of the emissions growth through 2030, while their per-capita emissions will remain much lower than the OECD’s, the report states.

By 2030, emissions in the U.S. and other OECD countries will approach 1980 levels, ExxonMobil predicts.