Projections made by the Energy Information Administration show that energy consumption will increase by 14 percent while use of energy made from fossil fuels will drop by 2035, according to the government's Annual Energy Outlook 2010 released last week.
"Our projections show that existing policies that stress energy efficiency and alternative fuels, together with higher energy prices, curb energy consumption growth and shift the energy mix toward renewable fuels," said EIA Administrator Richard Newell in a statement. "However, assuming no new policies, fossil fuels would still provide about 78 percent of all the energy used in 2035."
The reference case projections do not include effects of potential future policies that have not yet become law, and only include technologies that are commercially available or can reasonably be expected to become commercially available over roughly the next decade, states a news release on the outlook.
The fossil fuel share of total U.S. energy consumption will fall from 84 percent to 78 percent by 2035, the outlook’s reference case shows.
Total U.S. consumption of liquid fuels, including both fossil fuels and biofuels, will grow from 19 million bpd in 2008 to 22 million bpd in 2035. Biofuels will account for all of the growth, as consumption of petroleum-based liquids will be flat. Reliance on imported oil will decline “significantly” over the next 25 years, the release states.
Shale gas will increase to 6 trillion cubic feet in 2035, driving overall growth of domestic natural gas production from 20.6 Tcf in 2008 to 23.3 Tcf in 2035.
Despite a decline in energy from fossil fuels, carbon dioxide emissions from energy will grow at 0.3 percent per year, from 5,814 million metric tons in 2008 to 6,230 million metric tons in 2035. Per capita emissions will fall by 0.6 percent per year. Most of the emission growth is attributed to the electric power and transportation sectors.
The EIA’s reference case predicts that imported crude oil prices will incline by about 1 percent over 2008 levels to $121.37 bbl in 2035, while natural gas prices will remain flat over the same time period.
