The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on Dec. 15 said it expects global oil demand to return to growth next year after two successive years of decline.

In its final monthly report for the year reviewing events of the past 12 months and making projections for next year, OPEC said global oil consumption recovered in the fourth quarter as a result of an improvement in economic activities worldwide.

However, the forecast for global demand still shows a contraction of 1.4 million bpd for the year, unchanged from the cartel’s previous estimate published in November.

Global oil demand in 2010 is expected to grow by 800,000 bpd, which represents an upward revision of 70,000 bpd from the cartel’s previous estimate.

All of the projected oil demand growth for 2010 will come from developing countries, led by China and India, OPEC said in its December Oil Market Report issued last week. The forecasts are based on expectations the world economy will grow at the rate of 2.9 percent next year after a contraction of 1.1 percent this year.

The return to economic growth comes as a result of stimulus spending that various governments instituted this year. These multibillion stimulus packages, while pressing countries such as the U.S. into further debt, are expected to continue pushing economies forward next year.

However, OPEC warned that a slower pace of economic recovery in the developed countries, especially the U.S., could still put pressure on next year’s oil demand.

On supply, the report forecasts non-OPEC oil supply growing by 500,000 bpd in 2009 following an upward revision of 100,000 bpd from last month’s estimate. The revision is due to higher output in the U.S., Canada, Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

In 2010, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 300,000 bpd over the current year, the bulk of which comes from Brazil, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Colombia, and the U.S.

OPEC supply for 2009 has been revised down to 28.6 million bpd to show a contraction of 2.3 million bpd and that output level is expected to continue through next year. In November, OPEC crude production averaged 29.1 million bpd, an increase of 47,000 bpd over the previous month.

OPEC natural gas liquids or NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to add 500,000 bpd in 2010 following an increase of 400,000 bpd in 2009.

OPEC also made note of the current weak oil market, saying sluggish demand and high product inventories weakened refining economics in November, forcing refiners to cut runs, especially in the Atlantic Basin.

Cold weather in the coming months may provide some support for products and margins, but given the overhang in middle distillate inventories and the slow demand recovery, the products market will continue to be weak next year, and which won’t much help the crude market.