The U.S. ethanol market likely won't find equilibrium between supply and demand until 2011-12 at the earliest, some industry experts say.

Although there are several risks to this scenario, namely a change in policy that disadvantages the ethanol industry and prolongs the recovery, several experts generally agree that it would take a minimum of 24 months before excess production capacity and imports would match increasing demand mandated by the Renewable Fuels Standard.

"We have a floor for capacity, and that is the RFS," said Jerome P. Peters, managing director with TD Bank Project Finance. Peters spoke on a panel of industry experts in New York City on March 2nd at a Chadbourne and Parke LLP-hosted event.

Houston-based Motiva Enterprises LLC has in recent years ramped up ethanol blending and distribution in its drive in becoming a major player in the U.S. ethanol market.

Executives at Motiva, the U.S. joint venture between Shell Oil USA and Saudi Refining Inc., say the company is now a few months away from completing a large ethanol storage terminal in Convent, La.

“Motiva has been serving the ethanol market since the mid-90s and our presence is growing,” said Dan Grinstead, the company’s general manager for strategy, planning and business development.