The Energy Information Administration said in its Short-term Energy Outlook released last week that it expects retail gasoline to average $2.23 gal and diesel fuel $2.27 gal during the summer driving season, which is defined as the period from April 1 through Sept. 30.

That compares with a $3.81 gal average for gasoline during the summer of 2008, while diesel fuel averaged $4.37 gal.

“The increase in consumption provided by the dramatic fall in petroleum prices from last year is being offset by the weak economy,” said the EIA, which is expected to continue through the summer months. Analysts with the agency believe that trend will continue until the third quarter.

First quarter U.S. domestic petroleum deliveries, a measure of demand, fell 3.4 percent from the corresponding year prior period to 19.2 million bpd—the lowest level for any first quarter since 1998, the American Petroleum Institute reported in its most recent Monthly Statistical Report.

The industry group said the most recent first quarter level is in contrast to the first quarter high of 20.8 million bpd recorded in 2005—from which deliveries so far this year have fallen short by nearly 8 percent. The sharp four-year decline means that the U.S. share of world oil consumption fell from nearly 25 percent in the first quarter 2005 to below 23 percent in early 2009, based on International Energy Agency world estimates.

API reported more than half of the first quarter’s year-to-year decrease of nearly 700,000 bpd was accounted for by shrinking demand for distillate fuels, including both diesel and heating oil. Distillate fuel deliveries tumbled 8.5 percent during the period from the first quarter 2008, reflecting sobering economic conditions that cut demand for highway freight transportation and for other uses of diesel fuel. First quarter jet fuel deliveries dropped 7.6 percent from a year ago.