World energy consumption is projected to grow 44 percent between 2006 and 2030, driven by strong long-term economic growth in developing countries, the Energy Information Administration reported last week in its International Energy Outlook 2009.

While near-term demand will be impacted by the current global economic downturn, once the recovery begins, most nations are expected to see energy consumption grow at rates anticipated prior to the recession. Economic recovery is expected to begin within the next 12 to 24 months.

Total energy demand in the non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries is projected to surge 73 percent in EIA’s reference case compared to an increase of 15 percent in OECD countries. The strong energy growth in the non-OECD countries is attributed to strong long-term GDP growth. In all the non-OECD regions combined, economic activity—measured by GDP in purchasing power parity terms—increases 4.9 percent per year on average compared to 2.2 percent yearly for OECD countries.

The decline in U.S. auto sales alone pulled the nation’s gross domestic product down by half a percent between the third quarter of 2007 and the third quarter of 2008, according to research by James D. Hamilton, a professor of economics at University of California, San Diego.

In the absence of auto sales declines, Hamilton states, the real GDP would have grown over the period, and it is unlikely that economists would have deemed the time period as a true economic recession.

Auto sales are not the only impact on the nation’s economy from the U.S. auto industry; automaker job losses also had a profound impact. One-hundred and twenty-five thousand jobs were lost in U.S. auto manufacturing between July 2007 and August 2008, according to Hamilton’s research.