The Energy Information Administration released its monthly outlook for September last week with only slight revisions to its previous forecast issued in August, including a modest bump up in its projection for retail diesel fuel prices for this year and in 2010. Analysts with the federal agency also adjusted their estimates higher for retail gasoline prices in 2010, while projecting a return in global oil demand growth next year after lower year-on-year consumption rates in 2008 and 2009.

The Energy Information Administration expects retail diesel fuel to average $2.47 gal this year, a penny above its prior month projection, and to average $2.88 gal in 2010, up 4cts from August estimates. Analysts with the agency said amid an expected increase in demand for distillate fuels as the winter heating season begins, it projects diesel fuel retail prices will increase over the next few months to average $2.74 gal during the fourth quarter. Retail diesel fuel averaged $2.63 gal in August.

Regular-grade gasoline sold at retail outlets across the United States is expected to average monthly at $2.56 gal during the fourth quarter, down from a $2.62 gal average for August and September. For all of 2009, the average is projected at $2.34 gal for retail regular-grade gasoline in the U.S., while “[h]igher projected crude oil prices in 2010—about $12 per barrel, or 29 cents per gallon, higher than the 2009 average—increase regular-grade gasoline prices to an average of $2.70 per gallon next year,” said the EIA.

Bill Klesse, chairman, president and CEO of Valero Energy Corp., said the recent uptick in domestic demand for oil products is a positive sign that the consumption rate for oil is on the road to recovery following the “Great Recession,” making his comments last week in New York at Barclay’s CEO Energy/Power conference.

Valero, which is North America’s largest refiner with 15 refineries and a throughput capacity of 3.1 million bpd, expects the government stimulus package both in the United States and globally will have a positive impact on world economies that will drive demand higher.

“We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again,” said Klesse, who highlighted the global nature of the business, and expectations for increased demand for gasoline and diesel fuel by developing nations in the future.