In its Short-term Energy Outlook for November released last week, the Energy Information Administration raised its expectations for global oil demand for the fourth quarter and 2010, and revised higher its price projections for gasoline and diesel fuel sold at retail outlets in the U.S.
In releasing the outlook, the EIA also lifted its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude oil $7 bbl to $77 bbl this winter, defined as October through March, as expectations of an economic recovery and higher oil consumption offset concerns about a current surplus supply in inventory. The forecasts for monthly average WTI prices rises to about $81 bbl by December 2010 assuming U.S. and world economic conditions continue to improve.
“Higher projected crude oil prices in 2010 (refiner average cost of crude oil almost $17 per barrel, or 40 cents per gallon, higher than the 2009 average) contribute to an expected $0.45-per-gallon increase in regular-grade gasoline prices, to an average of $2.81 per gallon next year,” the EIA said.