The Energy Information Administration revised slightly higher its price outlook for retail diesel fuel in 2010, pointing to improved prospects for a global economic recovery that is expected to increase consumption for oil next year. The agency did, however, adjust its global oil demand expectations for 2010 slightly lower than what it showed in November.

In its final Short-term Energy Outlook for 2009, the EIA pushed up by 2cts the price average it anticipates for retail diesel fuel next year to $2.96 gal, saying the fuel will likely average $2.46 gal this year. For retail gasoline, the agency projects a $2.83 gal 2010 average compared with a likely $2.35 gal average this year, while saying higher crude prices will push gasoline towards $3 gal during peak driving demand over the summer.

“In 2010, the refiner cost for crude oil averages about $77 per barrel, or over $17 per barrel (41 cents per gallon) higher than the 2009 average, contributing to an expected $0.48-per-gallon increase in regular-grade gasoline prices to an average of $2.83 per gallon next year,” said EIA.

When renewable fuel is produced a RIN is assigned to each gallon. According to the regulations, these assigned RINs can only be transferred along with renewable fuel. The RINs cannot move independent of renewable fuel until such time that the associated fuel is blended into finished petroleum products or purchased by an obligated party, such as a refiner. An assigned RIN can be identified by the first number in the RIN which will be the numeral 1. An example of an assigned RIN is:

12009480270076000011020003994400048031 (K code = 1)

In principal, as the renewable fuel is placed into the retail market, along with petroleum products, the RIN then becomes separated from the fuel. In practice the rules read that obligated parties, such as refiners and importers of gasoline, and those who blend renewable fuel with finished gasoline, such as splash blenders and oxygenate blenders, are required to separate the RIN from the fuel. A separated RIN is easily identified by the first numeral being a 2. An example of a separated RIN is: